Analysis

Forex November 19, 2018

USA. The US currency is weakening today against the pound and the yen, and has mixed trading dynamics against the euro.

Forex November 19.  2018

The investors are focused on the trade conflict between the United States and China. Hopes for the conclusion of a trade agreement between the two countries at the G20 summit in Argentina melted away after comments of US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. He noted that the US administration intends to further increase tariffs on Chinese exports, and at the meeting between President Trump and Chairman Xi Jinping only a framework agreement can be concluded, which serves as a basis for further negotiations. Currently, the US administration has put forward a list of requirements consisting of 142 points to China, China has presented a list of possible concessions, but according to Bloomberg they are not sufficient for the United States.

Published on Thursday, US retail sales data was strong. In October, the figure rose by 0.8%, instead of the expected 0.4%. Today the market is waiting for the publication of the October statistics on the volume of industrial production. In October, the figure may fall from 0.3% to 0.2%, which will put pressure on the dollar.

Eurozone

The European currency is weakening today against the pound and the yen, and has mixed trading dynamics aginst the US dollar.

The investors are following the deal on Brexit, the conclusion of which was greatly complicated by the new resignations in the British cabinet and a serious opposition to the treaty in the British parliament. Also, the euro is under pressure of the comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who hinted today that inflation will not increase as quickly as expected, due to the fact that the Eurozone business faces uncertainty. However, Draghi sees no reason to cancel the curtailment of the asset purchase program at the end of this year.

The data on inflation in the Eurozone published today met the market expectations. The base consumer price index remained at 1.1%, while the general consumer price index rose from 2.1% to 2.2%.

Great Britain

The British currency today is weakly strengthening against the US dollar and the euro, but it has mixed trading dynamics against the yen.

Investors are monitoring the situation around Brexit. Today, a number of ministers, including the Minister of the Environment, Michael Gove, and the Minister of International Trade, Liam Fox, said they would remain in the government and continue working on the deal. In general, the current situation weakens the position of May before the battle in parliament, which now has to ratify the draft treaty with the EU. If the Prime Minister fails to convince the deputies, this will entail not only a “tough” exit of the UK from the EU, but also an internal political crisis. Representatives of the Labor Party have already said that if the deal cannot be concluded, the party will insist on a new general election and, possibly, on another referendum.

Japan

The Japanese currency today is strengthening against the euro and the US dollar and has a mixed trading dynamic against the pound.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the Japanese currency is technical in nature. It is worth noting that on Friday, Prime Ministers of Japan Shinzo Abe and Australia Scott Morrison held talks, the outcome of will strengthen the relationship in the military and security sectors. The parties also noted their commitment to free and open trade, which will ensure global stability and prosperity.

Australia

The Australian dollar today is weakening towards its main competitors – the yen, the pound, the US dollar and the euro.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the Australian currency is technical in nature. It is worth noting the interest of the market in the negotiations of Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Scott Morrison, who reached an agreement on cooperation between Japan and Australia in the military sphere. It is also worth noting the intention of the Australian authorities to begin proceedings against India because of subsidizing their own sugar producers. According to the Minister of Commerce Simon Birmingham, it can lead to serious losses for Australian companies.

Oil

During the day, oil prices are rising slightly.

The growth of quotations occurs despite data on US oil reserves from the EIA. According to the report, oil reserves increased by 10.27 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.411 million barrels, and distillates stocks decreased by 3.589 million barrels. In the evening, data on the number of oil rigs from Baker Hughes is expected. The last time their number increased from 874 to 886 units. Further increase may put pressure on oil prices.

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