AUD/USD

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The Australian dollar is declining against the US dollar, retreating from local highs of March 1, updated earlier in the week. Published yesterday, the macroeconomic statistics on the houses prices index in Australia pressured the instrument significantly. In Q4 2018, the indicator decreased by 2.4% QoQ and 5.1% YoY against a decrease of 1.5% QoQ and 1.9% YoY in Q3. The RBA minutes of March 5 did not support AUD, however, this was not a surprise. The protocols have once again confirmed the "wait-and-see" attitude of the regulator, who is not indented to change monetary policy and sees an increased risk of a slowdown in the global economy.

The negative dynamics of the instrument can be seen today. Investors are focused on the speech of the Deputy Head of the RBA, Michele Bullock. In her speech, Bullock concentrated on the problem of growing household debt, which poses risks to the stability of the entire financial system.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is practically unchanged, but it remains rather spacious given the trade dynamics in the market. MACD is reversing down and forming a sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics in response to the appearance of "bearish" sentiment in the short and ultra-short term.

There's a possibility of a downtrend in the nearest time.

Resistance levels: 0.7078, 0.7097, 0.7118, 0.7142.

Support levels: 0.7055, 0.7040, 0.7019, 0.7000.

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Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price moves away from 0.7055, as from support, followed by the breakout of 0.7078ю Take-profit — 0.7118. Stop loss – 0.7060.

A confident breakdown of 0.7055 may serve as a signal to further sales with the target at 0.7000. Stop loss – 0.7078.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

Scenario

Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7085
Take Profit 0.7118
Stop Loss 0.7060
Key Levels 0.7000, 0.7019, 0.7040, 0.7055, 0.7078, 0.7097, 0.7118, 0.7142

 

Alternative scenario

 

Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7050
Take Profit 0.7000
Stop Loss 0.7078
Key Levels 0.7000, 0.7019, 0.7040, 0.7055, 0.7078, 0.7097, 0.7118, 0.7142

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