GBP/USD

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend. The GBP/USD pair trades within a broad downward corridor. Yesterday, GBP was under pressure after the BoE meeting, which kept the interest rate at 0.75%. However, officials stated that the uncertainty around Brexit intensified and adversely affected the financial markets. The Bank also decreased its forecast for Q4 GDP growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. Published Q3 UK GDP statistics coincided with market expectations. The indicator stayed at the level of 1.5% YoY and 0.6% QoQ.

On the other hand, strengthening of USD is hampered by fears of the US economic recession. Some American experts consider the two rate hike next year will be harmful and lead to a significant decline. The prospect of a partial closure of the government also negatively affects USD. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump refused to sign a bill on the provisional financing of government structures because it did not provide the funds for the construction of a wall on the Mexico border.

Support and resistance

The key “bullish” level is 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands). If the price fixes above it, it can grow to 1.2817 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.2875 (upper border of the downward channel). Otherwise, the decline will resume to 1.2573 (Murrey [–1/8]) and 1.2500 (lower border of Bollinger bands).

Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. MACD is decreasing in the negative zone. Stochastic reversed downwards.

Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2875.

Support levels: 1.2573, 1.2500.

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Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price fixes above 1.2695 with the targets at 1.2817, 1.2875 and stop loss 1.2650.

Short positions can be opened after a price reversal around 1.2695 with the targets at 1.2573, 1.2500 and stop loss around 1.2730.

Implementation period: 4–7 days.

 

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2700
Take Profit 1.2817, 1.2875
Stop Loss 1.2650
Key Levels 1.2500, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2875

 

Alternative scenario

 

Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 1.2695
Take Profit 1.2573, 1.2500
Stop Loss 1.2730
Key Levels 1.2500, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2875

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