Gold Forecast

XAU/USD: gold strengthened

Current trend. Yesterday, gold prices rose slightly, continuing the development of a confident “bullish” impulse formed the day before due to a noticeable decrease in the stock markets, which reacted violently to new failures around the Brexit negotiations. The further growth was prevented by the strong USD position.

Thursday’s US data reflected the growth in Retail Sales excluding Autos by 0.7% MoM in October after falling by 0.1% MoM in September. Analysts expected a growth by +0.5% MoM. Manufacturing PMI of the New York Federal Reserve Bank in November rose from 21.1 to 23.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 20.0 points. However, investors were disappointed by the growth in the Initial Jobless Claims from 214 to 216K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are reversing horizontally. The price range consolidated but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing more confidently but it is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflexes the possibility of a corrective growth of USD.

It is better to keep current long positions in the super-short and short term.

Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08.

Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00.

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Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1216.62 with the target at 1226.11 or 1230.00. Stop loss is 1211.80.

Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1216.62 and the breakdown of the level of 1211.80 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1216.62.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

Scenario

Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1217.45
Take Profit 1226.11, 1230.00
Stop Loss 1211.80
Key Levels 1200.00, 1208.14, 1211.80, 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08

 

Alternative scenario

 

Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1211.75
Take Profit 1200.00
Stop Loss 1216.62
Key Levels 1200.00, 1208.14, 1211.80, 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08

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