USD/JPY

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend, Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair rose amid comments of Fed’s representative Richard Clarida, who supported the gradual rate increaseUSD growth was prevented by a slowing of Housing Price Index increase: it increased by 0.2% against the forecast of 0.4%.

Due to a lack of significant releases, the movement of the yen is technical, exposed to ambiguous factors. JPY strengthens against European currencies being used as a “shelter asset” from Brexit shocks. However, the possibility of introducing new US tariffs against Chinese exports weakens JPY against USD. According to Moody's, the Japanese economy, especially the automotive sector, is under pressure of the US-Chinese trade conflict. Next year, the profits of companies will start to decline significantly.

Today Q3 US GDP data will be published. According to forecasts, the figure will stay at the same level of 3.5%. Also, investors are waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 19:00 (GMT+2), high volatility is predicted.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument grows along the upper border of Bollinger bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive region, the signal line crosses the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions.

Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.10, 114.20, 114.30.

Support levels: 113.73, 113.65, 113.55, 113.39, 113.19, 112.93, 112.70, 112.55, 112.44, 112.30, 112.18.

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Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 114.30 and stop loss 113.55. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 113.20 with the target at 112.70 and stop loss 113.55. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

Scenario

Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 113.76
Take Profit 114.30
Stop Loss 113.55
Key Levels 112.18, 112.30, 112.44, 112.55, 112.70, 113.19, 113.39, 113.55, 113.65, 113.73, 114.00, 114.10, 114.20, 114.30

 

Alternative scenario

 

Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 113.20
Take Profit 112.70
Stop Loss 113.55
Key Levels 112.18, 112.30, 112.44, 112.55, 112.70, 113.19, 113.39, 113.55, 113.65, 113.73, 114.00, 114.10, 114.20, 114.30

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